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Indicator Matrix for Climate Change Subcommittee

by admin last modified 2007-09-26 09:20 AM

Drafted Indicator Matrix for climate change in the Gulf of Maine.

Category Indicator
Scientifically Valid
Responsive to Change
Cause and Effect Link
Accurate Data Available
Relevant to Users
Comparable Regionally
Useful at Different Scales
Comparable to Targets, Thresholds, or Standards
Indicates at Condition (i.e. Not Just a Measurement)
Terrestrial Temperature Changes
Average temperature change
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes ?
Yes
N/A
Yes
No

Trends in air temperature anomalies
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
N/A
Yes
Yes

Lake and river ice
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
N/A
No
Yes

Growing season
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
N/A
Yes
Yes

Snowfall and days with snow on ground
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
N/A
No
Yes
Keeping as an indicator is currently under discussion
Lilac bloom dates
Yes ?



Yes

N/A
Yes
Yes
Keeping as an indicator is currently under discussion Yield of grapes
Yes ?



Yes

N/A
Yes
Yes

Timing of high spring flow
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
N/A
Yes
Yes
Oceanic Temperature Changes
Sea surface temperature
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No

Temperature of bottom waters
Yes
Yes
Yes

Yes

Yes
Yes
No

Trends in surface water temperature anomalies
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes

Trends in bottom water temperature anomalies
Yes
Yes
Yes

Yes

Yes
Yes
Yes
Precipitation/Storm Changes
Precipitation trends
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
Yes

Extreme precipitation events
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No

Specific wind threshold










Extreme wind events










Storm Events










Proportion of precipitation as snow
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes

Landfalling hurricanes



Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No
No
Oceanic Biological Changes
Planktonic diversity










Warm versus cold water finfish diversity
Yes
Yes
Yes

Yes

Yes

Yes

Marine disease indices (MSX, dermo, shell disease)




Yes




Sea Level Changes and Effects
Relative sea level rise
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
No

Wetlands extent, distribution, and composition
Yes
Yes

Yes
Yes



Yes
Tidal and currents Changes
Changes in ocean currents or tides









Climate Change Matrix

Posted by Charles Tilburg at 2007-08-14 07:54 AM
Do you agree with the groupings, or should the indicators be grouped differently? Are there indicators missing? If so, which group should they be in?

Climate Change Indicators

Posted by Alan Hanson at 2007-09-05 04:54 AM
Not sure how spatially applicable phenology of lilacs and yields of grapes will be as indicators.

Indicators related to average/extreme wind speeds as well as storm events would also be useful.

Regards,
Al Hanson

Climate Change Matrix

Posted by Patricia King at 2007-09-23 08:33 AM
I am wondering if there are other oceanographic changes that should be considered, for example are we seeing changes is ocean currents or tides, and if so what are the potential impact. Are we able to measure such things? I am thinking they could influence surface and bottom temperatures so may go under that category. Could changes in tides or currents affect nutrient distribution/flow?

Phenological Indicators reply

Posted by Gary Lines at 2007-09-26 09:26 AM
I agree that the spatial relevance is questionable. There are clearly other factors that determine timing of these items rather than just temperature or precipitation changes. However in specific locations, assuming these other factors (agricultural practices, for example) are equal, they could be good indicators of floral change. Some challenges lie ahead in order to properly determine these changes in a projection mode.

Regarding wind and storm events, these also present a challenge in the projection mode. Wind can be a critical element in determining impacts along coastal regions, and not just the obvious direct impact on infrastructure but also related impacts regarding floral and fauna.

Both these items could be added, but like temperature, do we track a specific wind threshold or frequency of occurence? Is that enough of a value to treat it as an indicator?

Digital shoreline photography

Posted by at 2007-09-21 08:03 AM
For 3 years, I have been making digital photographs of some 75 sites I deem to be sensitive to shoreline erosion. By establishing a visual baseline, I am ready when the next storm surge reaches higher than before and causes significant changes. In future, I will incorporate a linear scale in the images when feasible. The types of things I look for are exposed banks/bluffs, eroding soils (often supporting Spartina species), exposed roots, and L-shaped trees that took root when soil and fresh water were present, but have become dependent on a single root extending toward a receeding bank (sometimes reaching 9 or 10 feet).

I suggest setting up a web page where photos illustrating significant erosion around the gulf could be posted. I would also propose including such a record under the last category in the matrix, Sea Level Changes and Effects.

Question: I haven't figured out how to upload such photos to this Website; Is that doable? If so, how would I go about it?

Perrin's photos

Posted by Charles Tilburg at 2007-09-25 07:14 PM
Steve's photos have now been added into a new folder for this subcommittee.
Best,
Christine

11.8-foot tide on November 25, 2007

Posted by at 2007-10-05 10:41 AM
One of the highest tides of 2007 will occur November 25. Could we sponsor and coordinate an international digital photography event on that day to record shoreline images at high tide around the Gulf of Maine? Subjects might include eroding banks and bluffs, boulders washing from such banks, tideline trees deprived of soil, retaining walls, and so on. This might be a powerful tool for both informing and involving the public.

Missing Elements in Matrix

Posted by Gary Lines at 2007-09-26 09:27 AM

When I first drafted the responses for each of the boxes in the matrix, I arbitrarily decided to simplify the process and treat each box as a yes (Y), no (no) or N/A not applicable. This may be too much of a simplification for some of these indicators. Also I didn't put anything in a number of boxes since I don't believe I have the knowledge or expertise to respond.

This means that more info may be required in each box and that more expertise, especially on the biologically based indicators, needs to be applied.

Having said that I do believe we can narrow down the list to the top 2-3 indicators by applying this process.

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