Indicator Matrix for Climate Change Subcommittee
Drafted Indicator Matrix for climate change in the Gulf of Maine.
| Category | Indicator |
Scientifically Valid |
Responsive to Change |
Cause and Effect Link |
Accurate Data Available |
Relevant to Users |
Comparable Regionally |
Useful at Different Scales |
Comparable to Targets, Thresholds, or Standards |
Indicates at Condition (i.e. Not Just a Measurement) |
| Terrestrial Temperature Changes |
Average temperature change |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes ? |
Yes |
N/A |
Yes |
No |
| Trends in air temperature anomalies |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
N/A |
Yes |
Yes |
|
| Lake and river ice |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
N/A |
No |
Yes |
|
| Growing season |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
N/A |
Yes |
Yes |
|
| Snowfall and days with snow on ground |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
N/A |
No |
Yes |
|
| Keeping as an indicator is currently under discussion |
Lilac bloom dates |
Yes ? |
Yes |
N/A |
Yes |
Yes |
||||
| Keeping as an indicator is currently under discussion | Yield of grapes |
Yes ? |
Yes |
N/A |
Yes |
Yes |
||||
| Timing of high spring flow |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
N/A |
Yes |
Yes |
|
| Oceanic Temperature Changes |
Sea surface temperature |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
| Temperature of bottom waters |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
|||
| Trends in surface water temperature anomalies |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
| Trends in bottom water temperature anomalies |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|||
| Precipitation/Storm Changes |
Precipitation trends |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
Yes |
| Extreme precipitation events |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
|
| Specific wind threshold | ||||||||||
| Extreme wind events | ||||||||||
| Storm Events | ||||||||||
| Proportion of precipitation as snow |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|
| Landfalling hurricanes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
No |
||||
| Oceanic Biological Changes |
Planktonic diversity |
|||||||||
| Warm versus cold water finfish diversity |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
||||
| Marine disease indices (MSX, dermo, shell disease) |
Yes |
|||||||||
| Sea Level Changes and Effects |
Relative sea level rise |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
No |
| Wetlands extent, distribution, and composition |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
Yes |
|||||
| Tidal and currents Changes | Changes in ocean currents or tides |
Climate Change Indicators
Posted by
Alan Hanson
at
2007-09-05 04:54 AM
Not sure how spatially applicable phenology of lilacs and yields of grapes will be as indicators.
Indicators related to average/extreme wind speeds as well as storm events would also be useful.
Regards,
Al Hanson
Indicators related to average/extreme wind speeds as well as storm events would also be useful.
Regards,
Al Hanson
Climate Change Matrix
Posted by
Patricia King
at
2007-09-23 08:33 AM
I am wondering if there are other oceanographic changes that should be considered, for example are we seeing changes is ocean currents or tides, and if so what are the potential impact. Are we able to measure such things? I am thinking they could influence surface and bottom temperatures so may go under that category. Could changes in tides or currents affect nutrient distribution/flow?
Phenological Indicators reply
Posted by
Gary Lines
at
2007-09-26 09:26 AM
I agree that the spatial relevance is questionable. There are clearly other factors that determine timing of these items rather than just temperature or precipitation changes. However in specific locations, assuming these other factors (agricultural practices, for example) are equal, they could be good indicators of floral change. Some challenges lie ahead in order to properly determine these changes in a projection mode.
Regarding wind and storm events, these also present a challenge in the projection mode. Wind can be a critical element in determining impacts along coastal regions, and not just the obvious direct impact on infrastructure but also related impacts regarding floral and fauna.
Both these items could be added, but like temperature, do we track a specific wind threshold or frequency of occurence? Is that enough of a value to treat it as an indicator?
Regarding wind and storm events, these also present a challenge in the projection mode. Wind can be a critical element in determining impacts along coastal regions, and not just the obvious direct impact on infrastructure but also related impacts regarding floral and fauna.
Both these items could be added, but like temperature, do we track a specific wind threshold or frequency of occurence? Is that enough of a value to treat it as an indicator?
Digital shoreline photography
Posted by
at
2007-09-21 08:03 AM
For 3 years, I have been making digital photographs of some 75 sites I deem to be sensitive to shoreline erosion. By establishing a visual baseline, I am ready when the next storm surge reaches higher than before and causes significant changes. In future, I will incorporate a linear scale in the images when feasible. The types of things I look for are exposed banks/bluffs, eroding soils (often supporting Spartina species), exposed roots, and L-shaped trees that took root when soil and fresh water were present, but have become dependent on a single root extending toward a receeding bank (sometimes reaching 9 or 10 feet).
I suggest setting up a web page where photos illustrating significant erosion around the gulf could be posted. I would also propose including such a record under the last category in the matrix, Sea Level Changes and Effects.
Question: I haven't figured out how to upload such photos to this Website; Is that doable? If so, how would I go about it?
I suggest setting up a web page where photos illustrating significant erosion around the gulf could be posted. I would also propose including such a record under the last category in the matrix, Sea Level Changes and Effects.
Question: I haven't figured out how to upload such photos to this Website; Is that doable? If so, how would I go about it?
Perrin's photos
Posted by
Charles Tilburg
at
2007-09-25 07:14 PM
Steve's photos have now been added into a new folder for this subcommittee.
Best,
Christine
Best,
Christine
11.8-foot tide on November 25, 2007
Posted by
at
2007-10-05 10:41 AM
One of the highest tides of 2007 will occur November 25. Could we sponsor and coordinate an international digital photography event on that day to record shoreline images at high tide around the Gulf of Maine? Subjects might include eroding banks and bluffs, boulders washing from such banks, tideline trees deprived of soil, retaining walls, and so on. This might be a powerful tool for both informing and involving the public.
Missing Elements in Matrix
Posted by
Gary Lines
at
2007-09-26 09:27 AM
When I first drafted the responses for each of the boxes in the matrix, I arbitrarily decided to simplify the process and treat each box as a yes (Y), no (no) or N/A not applicable. This may be too much of a simplification for some of these indicators. Also I didn't put anything in a number of boxes since I don't believe I have the knowledge or expertise to respond.
This means that more info may be required in each box and that more expertise, especially on the biologically based indicators, needs to be applied.
Having said that I do believe we can narrow down the list to the top 2-3 indicators by applying this process.
Climate Change Matrix