Do you agree with the groupings, or should the indicators be grouped differently? Are there indicators missing? If so, which group should they be in?

Not sure how spatially applicable phenology of lilacs and yields of grapes will be as indicators.

Indicators related to average/extreme wind speeds as well as storm events would also be useful.

Regards,
Al Hanson

I am wondering if there are other oceanographic changes that should be considered, for example are we seeing changes is ocean currents or tides, and if so what are the potential impact. Are we able to measure such things? I am thinking they could influence surface and bottom temperatures so may go under that category. Could changes in tides or currents affect nutrient distribution/flow?

I agree that the spatial relevance is questionable. There are clearly other factors that determine timing of these items rather than just temperature or precipitation changes. However in specific locations, assuming these other factors (agricultural practices, for example) are equal, they could be good indicators of floral change. Some challenges lie ahead in order to properly determine these changes in a projection mode.

Regarding wind and storm events, these also present a challenge in the projection mode. Wind can be a critical element in determining impacts along coastal regions, and not just the obvious direct impact on infrastructure but also related impacts regarding floral and fauna.

Both these items could be added, but like temperature, do we track a specific wind threshold or frequency of occurence? Is that enough of a value to treat it as an indicator?

For 3 years, I have been making digital photographs of some 75 sites I deem to be sensitive to shoreline erosion. By establishing a visual baseline, I am ready when the next storm surge reaches higher than before and causes significant changes. In future, I will incorporate a linear scale in the images when feasible. The types of things I look for are exposed banks/bluffs, eroding soils (often supporting Spartina species), exposed roots, and L-shaped trees that took root when soil and fresh water were present, but have become dependent on a single root extending toward a receeding bank (sometimes reaching 9 or 10 feet).

I suggest setting up a web page where photos illustrating significant erosion around the gulf could be posted. I would also propose including such a record under the last category in the matrix, Sea Level Changes and Effects.

Question: I haven't figured out how to upload such photos to this Website; Is that doable? If so, how would I go about it?

Steve's photos have now been added into a new folder for this subcommittee.
Best,
Christine

One of the highest tides of 2007 will occur November 25. Could we sponsor and coordinate an international digital photography event on that day to record shoreline images at high tide around the Gulf of Maine? Subjects might include eroding banks and bluffs, boulders washing from such banks, tideline trees deprived of soil, retaining walls, and so on. This might be a powerful tool for both informing and involving the public.

When I first drafted the responses for each of the boxes in the matrix, I arbitrarily decided to simplify the process and treat each box as a yes (Y), no (no) or N/A not applicable. This may be too much of a simplification for some of these indicators. Also I didn't put anything in a number of boxes since I don't believe I have the knowledge or expertise to respond.

This means that more info may be required in each box and that more expertise, especially on the biologically based indicators, needs to be applied.

Having said that I do believe we can narrow down the list to the top 2-3 indicators by applying this process.

Hi, everyone. In an attempt to test my ability to edit the matrix as well as updating some of the content, I have saved a "Version 2" of the PSR matrix that Christine provided.

Since I saved it under a different name, we should be able to retrieve Christine's original. However I tried to limit my edited changes so that it doesn't appear dramatically different than the original. Essentially I filled in some boxes with my best guess.

Feel free to comment on the appropriateness of the Yes/No/? in each of the boxes.

Looking at the sea surface temperature averaged monthly anomalies on the GoMOOS site, the trends march to their own drummer and might be hard to interpret. For 2006 and 2007, for instance, the average monthly SST anomalies increase Jan. 2006 to Jul. 2006, then decline somewhat precipitously, to rise again through Jan. 2007, and crash in February, to begin rising gradually through Sep. 2007. There are not only short-term trends, but possible lurching patterns of trends, which complicates interpreting what they might mean. I am not convinced that these data indicate a "condition." But I do believe this is one of the best indicators we have because it speaks to conditions over the entire Gulf of Maine. I would augment it with hourly or daily benthic temperature readings from selected sites throughout the gulf, particurlarly inshore areas where air temperature has maximum influence on bottom temperatures and changing conditions would first show up.

Hi All,

I am a physical oceanographer at the University of New England. As a relative new guy to this discussion, I have a few comments and questions on the matrix that may or may not be relevant.

1.) I am uncertain on how exactly indicators are judged to indicate a condition. It would seem to me that greenhouse gas concentrations do indicate a condition, i.e. that of man-made emissions to the environment. Can someone (Gary L.?) describe exactly how the last column on the matrix was decided upon? Am I misinterpreting the meaning of condition in this context?

In response to a question raised in the last conference call: Both surface and bottom ocean temperatures can be affected by local conditions. The western portion of the Gulf of Maine is affected by the Eastern Maine Coastal Current and the Western Maine Coastal Current. These currents are both driven by river discharge. Temperatures within these two currents (both bottom and surface) are affected by large scale atmospheric conditions AND river conditions. Ocean temperatures away from shore are more likely isolated from river conditions.

- Charles Tilburg

Top three for each subcommittee member

Hi All,

I'll be the first to put out my top three. I am admittedly coming from a physical background, however I feel that the three climate change-driven indicators that would most affect coastal managers are:

1.) Sea level rise
2.) Depth-averaged temperature anomaly trends
3.) Precipitation anomaly trends

- Charles Tilburg